Analysts estimate that a bond has a 40 percent probability of being priced at $950 and a 60 percent probability of being priced at $1,050 one year from today. The bond is also callable at any time at $1,010. What is the expected value of this bond in one year?

40% probability that bond will be priced at $950

60% probability that bond will be priced at $1050

Expected value of the bond in one year:

(Probability*Price of bond) + (Probability * Callable price bond) = (0.4*$950) + (0.60*$1010) = $986

So, expected value is $986