Suppose that an investor is considering three alternative strategies: conservative, neutral, or aggressive. If economic conditions get better, then the strategies will return, respectively, 6%, 12%, and 20%. If economic conditions get worse, then the strategies will return, respectively, 4%, 2%, and - 8%. If better economic conditions has a probability of only 25%, then using the expected value criterion which alternative would the investor select?

The answer is: Following the expected value criterion the investor should choose indistinctively between the conservative or neutral alternatives.

Explanation:

The formula we use to calculate the expected return value of the different alternatives is:

ERV = ∑ (expected return x probability of occurrence)

The conservative alternative has an expected return value of of 4.5%

ERV Conservative = (6% x 25%) + (4% x 75%) = 4.5%

The neutral alternative also has an expected return value of of 4.5%

ERV Neutral = (12% x 25%) + (4% x 75%) = 4.5%

The aggressive alternative has an expected return value of of - 1%

ERV Aggressive = (20% x 25%) + (-8% x 75%) = - 1%