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18 March, 05:15

Assume that the current exchange rate between $ and Russian Ruble is 30Rb/$. The Russian Central Bank announces that Ruble will not get weaker than 40Rb/$ during the next year. Assume that one-year Ruble interest rate is 10% and one-year $ interest rate is 5%. Do you find the Central Bank's announcement credible? Explain. (Hint: What does Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) suggest for the future spot rate?) (Show your calculations!)

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  1. 18 March, 05:41
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    The Central Bank's announcement is quite credible as the predicted future spot exchange rate is way below the announced rate of 40Rb/$

    Explanation:

    Uncovered interest parity says that the one year Future spot rate (F) is linked to the spot exchange rate (S) in the following manner

    F = S * (1 + ih) / (1+if)

    ih and if are the interest rates in home country (Russia) and Foreign country (USA)

    So, F = 30 * (1+0.1) / (1+0.05) = 31.43 Rb/$

    So, the Central Bank's announcement is quite credible as the predicted future spot exchange rate is way below the announced rate of 40Rb/$
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