Which prediction method is best for making short-term forecast for a severe weather event?

Answer

By using observation and knowledge of the weather, a short-term forecast for a severe weather can be noticed from cold air aloft and a strong cold front.

Explanation

When you learn what to observe in the atmosphere, you can predict weather conditions without technology. For instance, you can observe the wind using smoke, to detect easterly winds which suggest bad weather. You can look at the clouds too, where wispy clouds is a sign of a clear weather. Moreover, you can look for ant mounds, in that, recent high ant mounds is a sign of a storm approaching.