Carl has a piece of toast that has jelly on one side, and he dropped it twice. Both times, it landed with the jelly side up. If he drops it 2 more times, what is the probability that it will have landed jelly side up a total of 3 times?

There is about a 50% chance that that would happen. Putting aside the first two times he dropped it, there are only two options, therefore a 50% chance that he would drop it jelly side up a third time.

Carl has two more flips and we want to know the probability that one and only of those times it will be jelly side up. assuming the basic head and tails probability each flip we have 4 possible; e outcomes: Plain side Plain side, Plain side Jelly side, jelly side Plain side and jelly side jelly side and 2 of those four give us the one P wanted, so 2/4 = 50% probability.