A fair coin is flipped 10 times, and the results are recorded. If the coin came up heads every time, what do you expect the eleventh flip to be? Explain your answer.

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Mathematics

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30 June, 20:03

A fair coin is flipped 10 times, and the results are recorded. If the coin came up heads every time, what do you expect the eleventh flip to be? Explain your answer.

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Blaze Page · Answer 1

Responses may vary but should include some or all of the following information:

The eleventh flip has a 50% chance of being heads. Since one flip is independent of past flips, this is as we would expect. People often think that the coin is on a streak, and thus is more likely to come up heads again, or that the coin is "overdue" to come up tails. If this were the case, which it is not, it would be smart to ask before a coin flip what the last few outcomes were.