Suppose each box of a popular brand of cereal contains a pen as a prize. The pens come in four colors: blue, red, green, and yellow. Each color of pen is equally likely to appear in any box of cereal. Reflect on all the devices we've used to simulate an experiment: fair coin, dice, spinners, bags of marbles, etc).

What device would you use to simulate the probability of drawing a blue pen from a cereal box? You must explain why you would choose this device.

Step-by-step explanation:

If the color of the pen is equally likely to occur in either package, the probability of having a blue pen in any one package is $/frac{1}{4}$ or 0.25. Simulation is then used to find an approximate answer to the question. Students choose a tool or system that produces a defined outcome with a likelihood of 0.25 to model the method of purchasing cereal boxes before a blue pen is located. Random integers 1, 2, 3, 4, with, assume, 1 denoting gray, would function (like four sides of a six-sided die, etc.). They then produce a number of outcomes for the simulated case and gather evidence for the distribution of waiting times.

There is a list of random integers that generates 9 simulation checks, the corresponding waiting times for a 1 (blue) to be 2, 5, 4, 1, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3.